By the numbers
Modulation in real songs
Short answer
Whether a song “modulates” depends on how long a new key must last to count. Among 1,156 art songs analysed by software, 79.5% have a change of key between sections of at least 2 bars, 62.3% at 4 bars, 27.1% at 8 bars and only 5.8% at 16 bars. From a major home key the commonest destination is the dominant (148 songs); from minor it is the parallel major (124 songs).
- 27.1%of songs change key between sections of 8+ bars
- 80% → 6%songs with a key change, counting sections of 2+ bars against 16+ bars
- 148major-key songs that go to the dominant (V), the commonest target
Dataset: 1,156 OpenScore Lieder art songs with an automatic key-by-key analysis (AugmentedNet v1.9.1, not checked by a person). Art songs, mostly 19th-century; not a count of modulations in all music. Always quote the minimum length with the percentage: it changes the answer several-fold.
How many songs modulate?
The honest answer is a range: from 80% of songs when two-bar key sections count, to 6% when each section must last 16 bars. The 4-bar line is the setting used for the rest of the page.
| Minimum key section | Songs with a key change | Share | Key changes per song (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 bars | 919 | 79.5% | 5.4 |
| 4 bars | 720 | 62.3% | 2.2 |
| 8 bars | 313 | 27.1% | 0.6 |
| 16 bars | 67 | 5.8% | 0.1 |
Where do songs go?
From a major home key the dominant (148 songs), the parallel minor (106), the relative minor (97) and the subdominant (72) lead; from minor the parallel major (124) and the relative major (98) come first. Returns to the home key are counted separately: 535 times in major-home songs and 266 in minor-home songs.
Key changes per song
Minor-key songs modulate more often than major-key ones at this setting (75% against 56%).
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Songs with at least one key change (4+ bars) | 720 of 1,156 (62.3%) |
| Major-home songs that modulate | 448 of 795 (56.4%) |
| Minor-home songs that modulate | 272 of 361 (75.3%) |
| Key changes per song: mean / median / 90th percentile | 2.2 / 2 / 5 |
Songs with long sections in two keys
Even at the strictest setting some songs clearly move: these have a section of 16 bars or more in one key followed by another.
Songs that change key between long sections
The keys and bar numbers are the software's reading. Chosen by a fixed rule: composers with a page on this site first, then the composers best represented in the corpus, one song per composer.
Start in a major key
39 songs have a key change between sections of 16+ bars.
- Abschied Franz Schubert (1797–1828)from Schwanengesang.D.957E♭ major (bars 1–20) → A♭ major (bars 32–47)
- Aubade-Habanera Augusta Mary Anne Holmès (1847–1903)from 20 MélodiesC major (bars 1–33) → G major (bars 43–58) → C major (bars 58–87)
- Süsser Freund, du blickest Robert Schumann (1810–1856)from Frauenliebe und Leben, Op.42C major (bars 22–40) → G major (bars 43–58)
- Seid mir gegrüsst Josephine Lang (1815–1880)from 3 Lieder, Op.36E♭ major (bars 1–24) → C minor (bars 25–40) → E♭ major (bars 41–71)
- Durch Carthago's Trümmerhallen Johanna Kinkel (1810–1858)from 6 Lieder, Op.19A♭ major (bars 4–22) → F minor (bars 36–51)
Start in a minor key
28 songs have a key change between sections of 16+ bars.
- Denn es gehet dem Menschen wie dem Vieh Johannes Brahms (1833–1897)from 4 Serious Songs, Op.121 (Vier ernste Gesänge)D minor (bars 1–30) → C♯ minor (bars 52–67)
- Aufenthalt Franz Schubert (1797–1828)from Schwanengesang, D.957E minor (bars 1–40) → G major (bars 53–79)
- Chanson des gars d'Irlande Augusta Mary Anne Holmès (1847–1903)from Mélodies pour Piano et Chant (Chansons populaires)G♯ minor (bars 1–17) → A♭ major (bars 26–43) → G♯ minor (bars 45–61) → …
- Ich kann's nicht fassen, nicht glauben Robert Schumann (1810–1856)from Frauenliebe und LebenC minor (bars 0–17) → E♭ major (bars 18–47) → C minor (bars 48–84)
- Der Herbst Josephine Lang (1815–1880)from 6 Lieder, Op.12C♯ minor (bars 15–36) → E major (bars 41–83)
Hear a modulation
The five commonest destinations, played as a plain cadence in the old key and then in the new one.
Hear the commonest key changes
A cadence in the home key, then the same cadence in the new key. The key letters in the middle column are for the key C (or A minor); pick another key and everything moves with it. Synthesised in your browser, no recording.
- Major home key, then the dominantC → G (key +7)148 major-key songs go to V
- Major home key, then the parallel minorC → C minor106 major-key songs
- Major home key, then the relative minorC → A minor97 major-key songs
- Minor home key, then the parallel majorA minor → A major124 minor-key songs
- Minor home key, then the relative majorA minor → C major98 minor-key songs
What modulation is
Excerpts from Wikipedia.
From Wikipedia
Modulation (music)
Overview
In music, modulation is the change from one tonality (either a tonic or a mode, or both) to another. This may or may not be accompanied by a change in key signature (a key change). Modulations articulate or create the structure or form of many pieces, as well as add interest. Treatment of a non-tonic chord as a temporary tonic, for less than a phrase, is considered tonicization.
Significance
In certain classical music forms, a modulation can have structural significance. In sonata form, for example, a modulation separates the first subject from the second subject. Frequent changes of key characterize the development section of sonatas. Moving to the subdominant is a standard practice in the trio section of a march in a major key, while a minor march will typically move to the relative major.
Changes of key may also represent changes in mood. In many genres of music, moving from a lower key to a higher often indicates an increase in energy.
Popularity
The popularity of the key change varies with musical trends over time. In every decade from the 1960s to the 1990s, about 25% of No. 1 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 had a key change; however, in the 2010s, only one Billboard No. 1 hit ("Sicko Mode" by Travis Scott) had a key change.
Source: Wikipedia, “Modulation (music)” — CC BY-SA 4.0 — text excerpted; see the article for the full text and authors. Revision of 2026-06-13.
How this was counted
- Source. The key labels of the automatic analyses (
analysis_automatic.rntxt) of the OpenScore Lieder Corpus, made by AugmentedNet v1.9.1; 1,156 songs. - Key sections. Consecutive bars with the same key label form a section; a section counts only if it lasts at least N bars, and neighbouring sections in the same key are merged. A song modulates when at least two counted sections in different keys follow each other. N = 2, 4, 8 and 16 are shown; 4 is the default.
- Destinations. The new key is named by its distance from the home key (the first counted section) and its mode, for example “dominant (V)”; going back to the home key is not counted as a destination.
- Check. The song-by-song scan used for the example list reproduces the number of modulating songs at 2, 4, 8 and 16 bars exactly. In a sample of 60 songs the chord labels fit the notes of their bar (85.0% of the sounding duration against 27.7% for a random chord), so the labels are far from random, but the key boundaries have not been checked by people.
Data used
- OpenScore Lieder, automatic harmonic analyses — 1,156 of the songs come with a Roman-numeral analysis produced automatically by AugmentedNet v1.9.1 and not checked by a person; chords, cadences and key changes are counted from those 1,156 files. CC0 1.0
- OpenScore Lieder Corpus — 1,462 art songs (mostly 19th-century European) transcribed to MusicXML by volunteers; key signatures, time signatures, tempo words, metronome marks, vocal lines and melodies are read directly from the files. CC0 1.0
What these numbers cannot tell you
- The result depends on the minimum length N more than on anything else: it runs from 80% to 6% on this page. Never quote one of the percentages without its N.
- Key labels are software output that has not been checked by people. Short tonicisations and real modulations are not reliably told apart, which is why the minimum length is needed.
- A song that stays in one key but visits many chromatic chords is not a modulating song here, and a song that is slowly modulating through short sections is not counted either.
- The repertoire is volunteer-transcribed, mostly 19th-century art songs; it says nothing about modulation in pop (for example a final key change up a tone) or in other styles.
Checks run each time this page is rebuilt (11)
- threshold 2 bars: the song-by-song scan finds the same 919 songs with a key change as lieder-harmony.json
- threshold 8 bars: the song-by-song scan finds the same 313 songs with a key change as lieder-harmony.json
- threshold 16 bars: the song-by-song scan finds the same 67 songs with a key change as lieder-harmony.json
- threshold 4 bars: 720 songs with a key change reproduced
- major-home and minor-home modulating songs add up to 720
- the 4-bar share equals songs / 1,156 (0.6228 vs 0.6228373702422145)
- the share of songs that modulate falls as the minimum length rises
- the first four major destinations and first two minor destinations are the ones named in the text
- major-home and minor-home songs add up to 1,156
- minor-home songs modulate more often than major-home songs
- example list: 67 songs have a key change between sections of 16+ bars
Data: OpenScore Lieder, automatic harmonic analyses (CC0 1.0); Wikipedia (excerpts) (CC BY-SA 4.0). Computed for this site on 2026-10-03; the numbers are counts or shares from the datasets named above, not estimates for music in general. Licences and credits for everything used on this site are on the credits page.